Reference document

CRE Profile Definition Process

The Casualty Rate Estimation (CRE) Profile Definition Process enables the representation of particular scenarios in so-called CRE Profiles. Each profile contains data sets relating to the Operational Scenario and the Force Structure. ; Operational Scenario The purpose of developing scenarios is to provide multiple operational contexts within which the application of capabilities such as CRE could be examined. Scenarios seek to facilitate analysis of how best to accomplish assigned mission tasks and satisfy target and collateral constraints. The CRE capability will produce different estimates for different scenarios. Elements that describe a possible scenario are * Mission Type - Drives attrition rates. Examples Article V Operation, Non Article V Crisis Response Operation, Defence against Terrorism, Peace Keeping, etc. [AJP-3.4(A), 2010] * Enemy Profile / Threat Assessment / Attrition or Engagement Types (to inform Casualty Clusters) / Battle Environment (Rural, Jungle, Urban etc.) * Operational Event Profiles (to drive clusters) * Mission Phase * Physical Environment (if shown to be applicable) ; Force Structure A mission Force’ is made up of its Force Structure which is hierarchical and is required in order to identify the number, size and type of operational units for the purposes of calculating a CRE. Each force has a given PAR and Forces which include subordinate units will have a PAR equal to the sum of their subordinate’s PARs. TOPFAS supports the force generation in the Operational Planning Process and the CRE capability shall be able to import the ORBAT (Order of Battle) and Statement of Requirements (SOR) force structure generated in TOPFAS. The force structure shall specify * Combat Units (Type/size and number - e.g. 2 x Combat Brigades) * Combat Support Units (CSU) (type/size and number) * Combat Service Support (CSSU) (type/size and number) * Set relationship between units (parents, subordinate) * Other population(s) - Civilians will be included for applicable mission types The CRE capability shall also be able to construct or modify a force structure using basic force element approach (add, edit, delete force elements) or a more rapid force builder approach (select from pre-defined force structures, grouped into the following categories ground manoeuvre forces, naval forces, and air forces.). The Capability Codes (CC) and Capability Statements (CS) provide the common “language used in Defence and Operations Planning in order to express capabilities. [NCIA TR-2013-SPW008899-01] provides more information about Defence and Operations Planning and [NAC AC/281-N(2011)0178 (R), 2011] provides CC and CS used as ACO Force Standards and/or Combined Joint Statement of Requirements (CJSOR); these could be used as input for building the force structure. ; Mission phases A joint operation normally consists of a number of stages (or phases) starting with preparatory activities (pre-deployment), continuing with deployment and conflict and ending with post conflict. The aim of staging an operation is to maintain continuity and tempo and to avoid unnecessary operational pauses. Stages are sequential but they may overlap and it is likely that casualty rates will vary during the different phases of an operation [NATO AJMedP-1, 2009]. Users with appropriate permissions shall be able to use the CRE capability to model any stage of an operation and they shall be able to configure parameters for the different operational stages and to generate casualty rates accordingly. ; Time Interval Casualty Rates are generated for a specific category (e.g. unit, phase of the operation), for a certain PAR and for a defined time interval (days, weeks, months). The casualty rates can be calculated on a per-day basis (e.g. day 1 - 0, day 2 - 1, etc.) or aggregated for the entire time interval considered. The system shall allow users with appropriate privileges to configure a timeline for which casualty rates will be generated.

CBRN Casualty Rate Estimation Processes